Sikkim's First Airport Pakyong!!

Introduction

Pakyong Airport is the Greenfield Airport the State Capital Gangtok. It is India's 100th Operational Airport in India. It is approximately 4500 ft from the sea level. One of the 5 biggest Airports in India. First Greenfield Airport in the Northeast. Only Airport in the State. One of the tallest reinforced soil structures in the world.

Background of the Project

Sikkim was the only state which didn't have any operational Airport of its own. They either used the Bagdogra Airport, which is 124 Kms in the Neighbouring State of West Bengal or the Paro Airport in the Bhutan. So in 2008 the Cabinet Committee gave the approval for the development of the Pakyong Airport. The Foundation stone was laid by the then Civil Aviation Minister, Prafulla Patel.

The Airport was estimated to be complete till 2012. But due to the agitations from the local people this was halted till 2014. The local people demanded proper rehabilitation and security. Later in 2014 the AAI took initiative, discussed with the people and gave some part of the compensation. This helped in starting the work again. But in 2015 the villagers again protested and the project was again halted.  Later in 2015 the state Government signed a MOU with the AAI and promised to help the villagers in safe and securely shifting and rehabilitating. This helped the AAI to finally start it's work till the end of 2015. Due to this protests and the landslides upslope of the runway resulted in the Escalation of its cost from 309 Crore Rupees to 605 Crore Rupees.

On 24th September 2018, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the 

Airport. And flights will start commencing from 4th of October between Guwahati and Kolkata.

Strategic Importance

Last year we saw some tensions going on regarding the Doklam region with China. Doklam is the region with 3 International Borders. And it is near to this Airport within 54kms. So this Airport might play an Important Strategic role in Future.

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Rafale Deal in Short!

Why we need Rafale Fighter Jets?

India has Pakistan to its west and China to its East. So when there is a war like condition India should have the potential to fight on both the fronts at the same time. To be able to fight on both fronts we need 42-45 squadrons of Fighter Jets and each squadron has 16-18 jets each. So the Indian Air Forces continuously demanded the Government to purchase new Fighter Jets to increase its potential. According to a report India has only 34 squadrons, out of which only 31 are in working condition. Also it is important to note that these squadrons contain 11 squadrons of Sukhoi 30 MKI. These are the latest fighter jets in our Air Force. Other jets in the Air Force are either getting upgraded or getting retired. Till 2020 It is expected that around 14 squadrons will get retired. So till 2020 Air Force will have total 20 plus 3 more squadrons of Sukhoi 30 MKI, which will be made and given to the Air Forces by HAL(Hindustan Aeronautics Limited) till 2020. So this total 23 Squadrons are around half the estimated potential. So the Indian Air Forces continuously forced the Government to purchase new Fighter Jets to increase its potential.

What is Rafale Deal?

In 2000 Government decided to purchase 126 Miraj 2000 Jets, but later this deal was changed. And they decided to purchased 126 MMRCA( Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft). In 2007 decided to purchase 126 MMRCA, for which Manmohan Singh announced a RFP (Request For Proposal). According to this proposal all the Air Craft Companies in the world had to explain their model with all its features in a PPT. This was well known around the world as the Indian-MMRCA tender. This deal was estimated around 1 Lakh 26 thousand Crore Rupees. It was renowned as the Mother of all Defense Deal in the World. All the Air Craft manufacturing Companies in the world gave their presentation in response to the RFP. A number of jets were assessed and in 2011 two Fighter gets were selected, one was the EuroFighter Typhoon and other was The Rafale of Dassault. In 2012 Finally Indian Government gave L1 bidder to Dassault Aviation. L1 bidder is the least bidder and finally conversation started with them on Rafale Deal. According to the deal India wanted 18 Jets to be delivered in the Flyover condition. And other 108 jets to be made in India by the Dassault in partnership with the HAL(Hindustan Aeronautics Limited). one most important point of the deal was that India wanted Dassault to take the quality control responsibility of the 108 jets to be made by the HAL. Talks were going on between Dassault and HAL. But nothing went okay as Dassault did not want to take the responsibility of the jets made by HAL in India. Also there were differences in the expenses of both the Companies. Due to this, the deal couldn't take place till 2014. 

In 2014 also the talks continued between Dassault and Modi Govt. In April 2015 PM Modi went to France and in a press conference he declared that India will purchase 36 Rafale Jets through France Government. So, on 30 July 2015 the MMRCA tender was finally withdrawn. And it was cleared that now the deal is not with the Dassault but with the France Government.

Why is there Controversy around this Deal?

As per the opposition there are various changes in the deal on which there are few allegations by the opposition on the Government. We will discuss these Allegations one by one.

1. Less number of Jets : As per the UPA there were 126 jets proposed whereas NDA's deal has only 36 jets to be delivered in the fly way condition. As per the Press conference from the Govt, they said that 36 jets will be received in fly way condition and others will be manufactured in India with the help if its offset partner. 

2. 2-3 times more pay to the Dassault: As per the opposition Modi Govt's estimated cost of the deal is 60,000 Crores which is thrice the estimated cost of the UPA's deal. Now Opposition demanded an answer on this increased cost. Govt says that as it is a Defense deal its cost and other details will not be made public.

3. Technological loss : As per the previous deal Dassault would have had made 108 jets with the partnership of HAL in India, and this would finally help HAL to learn some new Technology. But as per the new deal all the 36 jets will be coming to India in the fly way condition.

4. Financial favor to Reliance: Opposition claimed that the Modi Govt helped the Reliance Company by purchasing the jets at higher cost than the Earlier deal. Govt cleared its stand that India will get more things than before. Dassault took the responsibility that every year there would be minimum 75% jets in the working condition and it will make all the spare parts available till next 7 years.

France Govt Statement

5. Holande's Remark: One of the allegation is that the former President of the France said that," India proposed a service group and Dassault negotiated with the Ambani". He also said that," We did not have a choice" and " We did not have a say in this". In Defense of this The France Govt issued a statement saying that the Govt is in no manner involved in the choice of the Indian Industrial Partners and will be selected by the French Companies. The French Company has full freedom to choose their Indian Industrial Partner. Also the Dassault Aviation has also issued a clarification stating that they have decided to partner withe the India's Reliance Group.

Dassault's Statement

GUJARAT ELECTIONS 2017 : NUMBER MAGIC

GUJARAT ELECTIONS 2017 : NUMBER MAGIC 

Figure1 : Map of Gujarat Constituencies.

• Last week we all saw the tough battle of Gujarat Elections. Here we saw the BJP trying hard to save its 22 years of long ruled state. Still the people bestowed trust again with the party.
• Though it was said that there is a wave of anti-incumbency but still the young leaders like Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakur made the battle like nail biting for the ruling party. Though the BJP came to power but this was among st their worst performance till date. And the Congress proclaimed it to be a Moral Victory to their side. 
• Now let me clear this fact that am not going to bore you all with how the whole campaign was, that we all know it.
• When I went through the numbers I found very interesting things that gave me an insight about how numbers have its own X-Factor than anything else in Politics. So lets start this with the Final Results.

GUJARAT ELECTION RESULTS 2017

Fig 2: Gujarat Election Results 2017

We can clearly see that BJP has total loss of 16 seats with increase in voting by 0.2%. While Congress increased its vote share by 2.5% but that made them to grab 16 seats.

As per the Campaign and the past local body Elections the vote share increase was expected to grow more as the Congress even claimed to uproot the BJP Rule and form Government. But its not so.

LEADS TABLE

Fig 3: Partywise Leads Table

Blue Zone 

• When we comment on the Organizational Roots of any Political Party its wideness can be seen from the scale of voting pattern. In the above table we have classified all the Winning margins within 10 different ranges. The margin of Victory defines the strong hold of the Organization in their constituency. Wider the range, more tough it becomes to challenge the Present one.
• In table 2 the blue zone can be defined as the safe zone for any political party which are tough for the competitors to win from. Similarly to loose such a strong zone is something like weak Political Performance. Also one Party always aims at strengthening its Blue Zone.
• If we neglect the 7th row of 10000-25000, BJP still has a strong hold in 45 constituencies which is about 50% of the majority to Form the Govt and 25% of the House. Whereas Congress has strong hold only in 11 constituencies.
• Now consider the Whole of the Blue Zone where BJP holds 73 seats which is just short of 19 seats to form the Government while Congress holds about 41 seats which is about 51 seats more to form the Government.

Benefits of Blue Zone:-

• It plays as a backup in tough games.

• Its a long and continuous process to build a strong and unbeatable constituency.

Yellow Zone

• The most interesting part of any Election where 40% of the battle is fought is the Yellow zone. Reasons is simple because its a tough game to retail a seat with less margin and you cannot predict it unless the game is very clear. The amount of such seats are more in any election and also they are the most deciding ones. They normally tend towards the one with the majority.
• We can see that this is the only zone where Congress have its best performance. It has gain about 45% of its seats in this zone with 36 seats. While the BJP won only 26 and saved its Mandate. That mean the overall 62 seats in the yellow zone are the reals king makers in the whole game.
• Yellow seats are crucial and equally losing because if the wave is against the Party then these are the first one to be loose in any election. Relaying on them is a great risk. 
• From this overall analysis we can say that Bjp has actually lost the game but its strong blue zone saved it from a big loss. So can conclude that in any election how strong you heat the campaign you can just affect 35-40% of the total seats, here 62/182, whereas its the Organizational base which is a firm backbone tho get through any Election.

SEATS SHUFFLE

Fig 4: Seats Shuffling.

• This is a very important factor in an Election. If we want to achieve more then its our first task to save and preserve more what we have with us and then to seek for other good ones that are good to win. 
• In this game BJP came out successful in retaining its 65-70% seats it won in 2012. Similar is the case with the Congress.
• But the real fight is seen in the snatching of seats. When BJP was able to snatch only 19 seats from the opponent and loosing 35 in return which comes to a total of 16 seats loss. 
• Similarly Congress gave a tough fight by snatching 36 seats with a loss of 20 which profited them with 16 seats overall.
• This is how the Whole game of numbers is which when we do the Analysis purely on the basis of Numbers.

To Conclude I would say that its was a Victory for Congress when it fought well in grabbing good seats from the BJP but still fail to form Government. Congress needs to strengthen its Organization and to do so it needs to have a Strong and Visionary Leader.

On the other hand it had been a great defeat for the Long Ruling BJP in the state but it won and all credit goes to the tight and deep Organizational Roots it had across the state that made it through the Election. BJP has just passed the exam but if it wants to further sustain then it needs to score and to score it needs to have some crucial Subjects very Efficiently.

Figure 5: Seats Shuffle from 2012 in 2017

MCD Election Results 2017:

MCD Election Results 2017: A lesson for The Aam Aadami Party.

 After the Long Election procedure the Delhi MCD Election Results were declared on 26th of April with BJP winning all the three Municipal Corporations by winning 181 out of 270 seat and defeating AAP with 48 seats and Congress with 30 seats.

MCD Elections are a perfect example of failure of party organization and connecting with voters at the ground level. If we go through the overview of each party we would find that it has again proved a big lesson for AAP party whereas in the success of BJP credit goes to the mistakes made by AAP.

Important Mistakes of AAP.

1. Political parties are not made only for winning elections, they are mentioned to win the hearts of voters. They need to take the work to the people. What's the reason of the party behind the MCD Election? Why MCD Elections were important to be won for AAP party? What have they done if they had won MCD Elections? Also how they are different then the BJP? Some of these questions are needed to be clear in the party throughout the campaign and within the party workers well.

2. Unfocussed Party Agenda: AAP party claims that MCD is the most corrupt organization. If we agree then it would have proved the most important issue in the campaign. But the party failed to fire the important issues. Thus was due to unfocussed party agenda. Rather the party was immersed in targeting the PM which was not the issue of the overall campaign.

3. Organizational Failure: AAP has done very good work in the State as compared to the previous government in the state. But still it failed to gain the confidence of the Delhities. It even failed to maintain its votes share in Delhi 52% and came down to 25%.
Party failed to connect to its own AAM AADMI and focused on its problems. Also the new schemes were failed to be taken to the people, all because of the failure of organization.

4. 67/70 overconfidence : Winning is an event and Success is a Journey. The party failed to recognize that it's not the winning that matters but the continuous work that runs the state. If u want to see what's the reality u need to be impartial while using the reality. Once u judge and infer something we need to accept the reality and take respective measure for the desired outcome. Party failed to recognize the mood of the people. Even thought recognised it failed to accept it as seen from the statement after the results.

5. Blaming EVM was a bad game: As soon as the results were declared the Party blamed the EVM for its defeat. First of all disrespecting EVM is disrespecting the people's mandate and similarly disrespecting the Democracy. And this is shameful. We must accept the results. If EVM were tampered now and don't believe in 181/270 mandate then we also don't believe the mandate 67/70.

6. Kejriwal=AAP & AAP=Kejriwal: It is found that the party is totally centralized on one man. If anyone disagrees he is dumped. The most laughable movement was when the Delhi said the National Chief of the party and the Delhi chief be himself. Means what a greedy man is he that he wants all the post and power in his hand only. The leader should be big hearted. And the organization should be expanding by decentralizing power within the associates.

7.Ignorance of its base: The party is emerged from a movement. It has some motive behind its formation and it's existence. It introduced a new style of politics which was accepted and supported by all the people. This is needed to be preserved and grown efficiently.

BJP's Victory

1. Strong LEADER: The main difference between AAP And BJP is the strong leadership. Modi in the centre affects the overall nerves of the party and the mood of the nation. Whenever there is crisis the people urge for leadership and the Leader must be always ready serve the leadership required. This and this only strengthens the confidence of the party. And the BJP has it.

2. Party Organization: The party is ever expanding daily. Not only in its bastion but also where it had nothing. This is only because of its strong party organization and its strong organizational leader Amit shah. Due to which despite its corruption charges in MCD it again gained it's hold.

3. Diluted Anti-incumbency: The very smart move played by Amit Shah is its decision to cut the tickets of all it's incumbent corporators and all the candidates were new and fresh. This helped in total dilution of anti incumbency of the BJP.

4. AAP's mistakes paved the BJP: All the above mistakes listed in the APP's section were like Googlies to the BJP.

CONGRESS: The only thing about Congress I would like to say is that it need to shift it's party president ship into the hands of a non-Gandhi person. It's the need and alarm for the Congress to survive. It's it will vanish even though it has enough to tackle the BJP.