GUJARAT ELECTIONS 2017 : NUMBER MAGIC

GUJARAT ELECTIONS 2017 : NUMBER MAGIC 

Figure1 : Map of Gujarat Constituencies.

• Last week we all saw the tough battle of Gujarat Elections. Here we saw the BJP trying hard to save its 22 years of long ruled state. Still the people bestowed trust again with the party.
• Though it was said that there is a wave of anti-incumbency but still the young leaders like Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakur made the battle like nail biting for the ruling party. Though the BJP came to power but this was among st their worst performance till date. And the Congress proclaimed it to be a Moral Victory to their side. 
• Now let me clear this fact that am not going to bore you all with how the whole campaign was, that we all know it.
• When I went through the numbers I found very interesting things that gave me an insight about how numbers have its own X-Factor than anything else in Politics. So lets start this with the Final Results.

GUJARAT ELECTION RESULTS 2017

Fig 2: Gujarat Election Results 2017

We can clearly see that BJP has total loss of 16 seats with increase in voting by 0.2%. While Congress increased its vote share by 2.5% but that made them to grab 16 seats.

As per the Campaign and the past local body Elections the vote share increase was expected to grow more as the Congress even claimed to uproot the BJP Rule and form Government. But its not so.

LEADS TABLE

Fig 3: Partywise Leads Table

Blue Zone 

• When we comment on the Organizational Roots of any Political Party its wideness can be seen from the scale of voting pattern. In the above table we have classified all the Winning margins within 10 different ranges. The margin of Victory defines the strong hold of the Organization in their constituency. Wider the range, more tough it becomes to challenge the Present one.
• In table 2 the blue zone can be defined as the safe zone for any political party which are tough for the competitors to win from. Similarly to loose such a strong zone is something like weak Political Performance. Also one Party always aims at strengthening its Blue Zone.
• If we neglect the 7th row of 10000-25000, BJP still has a strong hold in 45 constituencies which is about 50% of the majority to Form the Govt and 25% of the House. Whereas Congress has strong hold only in 11 constituencies.
• Now consider the Whole of the Blue Zone where BJP holds 73 seats which is just short of 19 seats to form the Government while Congress holds about 41 seats which is about 51 seats more to form the Government.

Benefits of Blue Zone:-

• It plays as a backup in tough games.

• Its a long and continuous process to build a strong and unbeatable constituency.

Yellow Zone

• The most interesting part of any Election where 40% of the battle is fought is the Yellow zone. Reasons is simple because its a tough game to retail a seat with less margin and you cannot predict it unless the game is very clear. The amount of such seats are more in any election and also they are the most deciding ones. They normally tend towards the one with the majority.
• We can see that this is the only zone where Congress have its best performance. It has gain about 45% of its seats in this zone with 36 seats. While the BJP won only 26 and saved its Mandate. That mean the overall 62 seats in the yellow zone are the reals king makers in the whole game.
• Yellow seats are crucial and equally losing because if the wave is against the Party then these are the first one to be loose in any election. Relaying on them is a great risk. 
• From this overall analysis we can say that Bjp has actually lost the game but its strong blue zone saved it from a big loss. So can conclude that in any election how strong you heat the campaign you can just affect 35-40% of the total seats, here 62/182, whereas its the Organizational base which is a firm backbone tho get through any Election.

SEATS SHUFFLE

Fig 4: Seats Shuffling.

• This is a very important factor in an Election. If we want to achieve more then its our first task to save and preserve more what we have with us and then to seek for other good ones that are good to win. 
• In this game BJP came out successful in retaining its 65-70% seats it won in 2012. Similar is the case with the Congress.
• But the real fight is seen in the snatching of seats. When BJP was able to snatch only 19 seats from the opponent and loosing 35 in return which comes to a total of 16 seats loss. 
• Similarly Congress gave a tough fight by snatching 36 seats with a loss of 20 which profited them with 16 seats overall.
• This is how the Whole game of numbers is which when we do the Analysis purely on the basis of Numbers.

To Conclude I would say that its was a Victory for Congress when it fought well in grabbing good seats from the BJP but still fail to form Government. Congress needs to strengthen its Organization and to do so it needs to have a Strong and Visionary Leader.

On the other hand it had been a great defeat for the Long Ruling BJP in the state but it won and all credit goes to the tight and deep Organizational Roots it had across the state that made it through the Election. BJP has just passed the exam but if it wants to further sustain then it needs to score and to score it needs to have some crucial Subjects very Efficiently.

Figure 5: Seats Shuffle from 2012 in 2017

MCD Election Results 2017:

MCD Election Results 2017: A lesson for The Aam Aadami Party.

 After the Long Election procedure the Delhi MCD Election Results were declared on 26th of April with BJP winning all the three Municipal Corporations by winning 181 out of 270 seat and defeating AAP with 48 seats and Congress with 30 seats.

MCD Elections are a perfect example of failure of party organization and connecting with voters at the ground level. If we go through the overview of each party we would find that it has again proved a big lesson for AAP party whereas in the success of BJP credit goes to the mistakes made by AAP.

Important Mistakes of AAP.

1. Political parties are not made only for winning elections, they are mentioned to win the hearts of voters. They need to take the work to the people. What's the reason of the party behind the MCD Election? Why MCD Elections were important to be won for AAP party? What have they done if they had won MCD Elections? Also how they are different then the BJP? Some of these questions are needed to be clear in the party throughout the campaign and within the party workers well.

2. Unfocussed Party Agenda: AAP party claims that MCD is the most corrupt organization. If we agree then it would have proved the most important issue in the campaign. But the party failed to fire the important issues. Thus was due to unfocussed party agenda. Rather the party was immersed in targeting the PM which was not the issue of the overall campaign.

3. Organizational Failure: AAP has done very good work in the State as compared to the previous government in the state. But still it failed to gain the confidence of the Delhities. It even failed to maintain its votes share in Delhi 52% and came down to 25%.
Party failed to connect to its own AAM AADMI and focused on its problems. Also the new schemes were failed to be taken to the people, all because of the failure of organization.

4. 67/70 overconfidence : Winning is an event and Success is a Journey. The party failed to recognize that it's not the winning that matters but the continuous work that runs the state. If u want to see what's the reality u need to be impartial while using the reality. Once u judge and infer something we need to accept the reality and take respective measure for the desired outcome. Party failed to recognize the mood of the people. Even thought recognised it failed to accept it as seen from the statement after the results.

5. Blaming EVM was a bad game: As soon as the results were declared the Party blamed the EVM for its defeat. First of all disrespecting EVM is disrespecting the people's mandate and similarly disrespecting the Democracy. And this is shameful. We must accept the results. If EVM were tampered now and don't believe in 181/270 mandate then we also don't believe the mandate 67/70.

6. Kejriwal=AAP & AAP=Kejriwal: It is found that the party is totally centralized on one man. If anyone disagrees he is dumped. The most laughable movement was when the Delhi said the National Chief of the party and the Delhi chief be himself. Means what a greedy man is he that he wants all the post and power in his hand only. The leader should be big hearted. And the organization should be expanding by decentralizing power within the associates.

7.Ignorance of its base: The party is emerged from a movement. It has some motive behind its formation and it's existence. It introduced a new style of politics which was accepted and supported by all the people. This is needed to be preserved and grown efficiently.

BJP's Victory

1. Strong LEADER: The main difference between AAP And BJP is the strong leadership. Modi in the centre affects the overall nerves of the party and the mood of the nation. Whenever there is crisis the people urge for leadership and the Leader must be always ready serve the leadership required. This and this only strengthens the confidence of the party. And the BJP has it.

2. Party Organization: The party is ever expanding daily. Not only in its bastion but also where it had nothing. This is only because of its strong party organization and its strong organizational leader Amit shah. Due to which despite its corruption charges in MCD it again gained it's hold.

3. Diluted Anti-incumbency: The very smart move played by Amit Shah is its decision to cut the tickets of all it's incumbent corporators and all the candidates were new and fresh. This helped in total dilution of anti incumbency of the BJP.

4. AAP's mistakes paved the BJP: All the above mistakes listed in the APP's section were like Googlies to the BJP.

CONGRESS: The only thing about Congress I would like to say is that it need to shift it's party president ship into the hands of a non-Gandhi person. It's the need and alarm for the Congress to survive. It's it will vanish even though it has enough to tackle the BJP.